Enter the Dragon

With Asia already emerging as a global growth engine, in spite of a temporary business blip in both India and China, both the countries have paramount part to play in a new business order in the emerging trade scenario

India’s bilateral trade in 2012-13 was in the region of $791.1 billion comprising $ 300.4 billion worth of exports and imports valued $ 490.7 billion.  India has been able to forge trade relationship with its proximity neighbors especially China.  From a mere $ 2.2 billion in 2000-01, it has swelled to $ 65 billion in 2012-13 and expected to go up to $ 100 billion by 2015.

            Even though the bi-lateral trade between India and UAE is around $ 75.4 billion, while to China it is $ 65.8 billion, the balance of payment in favour of China is $ 38.6 billion meaning the Trade is having leaning in favour of China. Indian exports to China between April-November 2013 touched $9 billion against imports which totaled $ 34.5 billion. During the current fiscal, it is estimated that Trade deficit with China may well cross over $ 40 billion. Only against United States of America we have a favourable Balance of Trade with a surplus of $ 11 billion in the total bi-lateral trade of $61.4 billion. China contributes to 10.6% of India’s total imports of $ 490.7 billion, while it accounts only for 4.5% of India’s total export of $ 300.4 billion during 2012-13.

            “Made in China” goods from power making equipment to small batteries and from laptops to crackers- continue to flood the Indian markets. China has moved from being India’s seventh largest source of Imports a decade ago to becoming its largest source. Machinery and machinery making appliances, chemicals and chemical products, base metals and products account for three-fourth of India’s import from China.

            India’s early years of trading Reforms, India was mainly concentrating on trading with the West. We did not think our neighbours who were in the peripheral proximity could assist us in improving our export capabilities. China has emerged as India’s Second largest trading partner, trailing behind UAE (total bi-lateral trade of $75.4 billion) and ahead of America ($61.4 billion) in 2008. China would lead the list, if one were to include India’s trade with Hongkong. The advantage of the trade between India and China is in China’s favour wherein the Balance of Payments which was less than $ 1 billion in 2000-01 ballooned to $38.64 billion in 2012-13. At that level, China accounted for a fifth of India’s global trade deficit and half, if India were to exclude oil imports.

            If Indian trade has to grow, and achieve trade surplus, then there is a need to explore avenues to bridge the insurmountable trade gap between the two countries.

            India does not produce what China fancies buying. Our exports mainly centre on Base metals and products, Textiles & Products, Mineral products (iron ore). These dominate as our exports to China. India was exporting iron ore to China but iron ore mining has been banned which has put at rest our foreign exchange income from export of iron ore. India exports lower grade iron ore, destined to feed Chinese steel mills, but halt in mining in Goa and Karnataka has dried up that source.

            China was early to adopt an export oriented strategy in accordance with its abundance in labour way back in 1980. India switched from inward oriented controlled regime only in 1990. The late development of an export oriented pro development strategy partially results in India’s relative lower export level volume today.

            China exports more complicated and sophisticated products than India, and high technology products to the rest of the World in terms of value and relative export market share. The situation reflects the importance of processing Trade rather than ordinary trade. China is setting up Ports in Sri Lanka, rail tracks through Myanmar to take back oil, and donating in billions to African nations such as Ethiopia. China’s purpose in taking investments to Ethiopia is to take on US whose investments in Ethiopia is considerable.

            India should adopt a suitable trade Policy to make effective inroads to Chinese markets. India also needs to restructure its export orientation to meet the specific import requirements of China so that it can have wider access to its domestic market. If product restructuring is not possible in the export basket, it has to reduce is pressure on bi-lateral imports so as to normalize its trade balance in the medium term.

            It should not be difficult for India to focus on more access to Chinese market for its value added products including IT enabled service enhancement of procurement of pharmaceuticals.  China has enormous capacity in manufacturing. India has developed enormous capacity in Information Technology. Chinese needs to provide opportunities to India to find more hospitable environment to do more and more business in China.

            India is also looking at attracting large FDI inflows from China. India to open to accommodate a group of Chinese companies to invest and often the products to Indian Domestic market through an operational Chinese Industrial Park to be set in India. Different delegations have scanned different areas identified by India for the Park.

            60,000 MW plus of imported Chinese equipment for the power sector will be available to India to fulfill its power needs. China’s biggest power companies will set up permanent presence in India by opening power equipment Service centers.

            India needs to concentrate on accelerating export of Indian pharmaceutical products, linoleum, plastics, and auto components to China so as to derive better its export increase to China.

            Enhanced fund flows can go a long way in facilitating, promoting, sustaining the economic relations between two of the World’s largest populated nations.

            When India’s trade blooms, the role of Dr Manmohan Singh, the Indian Prime Minister who had for the last one decade scuttled to various countries in pursuit of his trade agenda, enhance trade and business opportunities, played a decisive role to push bi-lateral and multilateral trade, by his exquisite scholarly Trade philosophy which had seen successful fruition. When India’s trade history will be unveiled, the saga would acknowledge his frontal role in leading India to a super economic and business power.

Indian Economy- any light at the end of the tinnel?

Utopian Indian Economy? Indian economy is in the doldrums. The caretakers of the Governments (Ruling coalition) and the watchdogs (Opposition parties) have been creating a near riot, and the economy, if it is not contained will hit gloom. The tsunami has already been formed, and to liberate the economy from its low would be an impossible and Utopian task. Companies are not performing to their capacity. There is a big gap between the installed capacity and working capacity due to idle capacity. Government has made RBI to commit all the economic flaws, impersonating the very same mistakes other nations in similar circumstances adumbrated. Our economy is slowly entering into a ‘debt trap’. Handsome foreign trade achievement. Between April- August 2011, despite the continuing meltdown and slakness of the markets, Indian exports generated Foreign Exchange to the tune of US $ 134502 million (Rs 602031.90 cr). A growth of 54.21% in dollar terms and 50%in Rupee terms. The export sector delivered a growth of 50% in Dollar, Rupee terms. Imports, necessary and unnecessary devoured US $ 1, 89,393.77 million (Rs 8, 47,987.07Cr) notching up a BoP position of the trade balance standing at (negative) $ 54891.23 million. The Rupee is fast depreciating against the Dollar (which continues to be weak). Corporate have borrowed in debt instruments more than US $ 50 billion but due to over heated Rupee, their gains have turned losses. Rupee is at its highest depreciation. The Commerce Ministry has been expressing hope that all is not lost, there would be no “w” growth, but momentum will see a gradual change by March 2012. Our Oil companies continue to bleed the consumer. Having monopoly status, every market affliction will be faithfully passed on to the consumer. There is a week Oil and Natural Gas Ministry at present, which cannot diagnosis the symptom with the result turning to be incorrect. Inflation has been mounting. Food prices are rising with alacrity. Oil prices are unbearable. It is very difficult for a middle class man to make both ends meet. Indian economy has become a candle, and due to the worst reign ever, since independence, the candle has burnt more than 70%. Fiscal deficit continues to haunt the government. Yet, the Finance Ministry is persisting with it, so that the continuum has made a spin off to the vulnerable sectors. Bank Credit rates increased 13 times in the last 18 months, has put India’s liberalization twenty year backwards. That too, when the architect of Indian reform, who’s Economic Revolution, made India one of the faster growing economies? Why is the economic clock turning anti clockwise? Why? Dismal financial conditions? Low down Economy? Depressed economic scenario? Our ineptitude handling? Prices skyrocketing, economy is struggling dragging its feet, industrial production has gone awry, industrial clusters wear deserted look as production has slipped to 50% with the growing of idle capacity, common man continues to be burdened and over burdened without any relief, expenses are mounting like Tendulkar’s batting, fiscal deficit is growing momentously, FII, FDI has come to a near halt, and the stock markets continues to fickle instead of dazzling. Our debt burden is likely to reach Himalayan proportions if we do not rein in the negative out flows. But we cannot stop imports. In spite of all these negative signs on the economic landscape, the mandarins in the Government profess to cough off all these happenings as a mild headache which can be corrected. Priorities are distorted, no course correction to direct the economy towards positive direction. There requires an attitudinal change on the part of the ruling Party especially the men who control the nation. The opposition also have a moral duty to prevent an economic collapse. Balance the economy is the imperative need, and any dithering will be catastrophic to the economy as well as the Nation. Better late than never.

The Petrol price oligopoly?

We see a whipsaw market performance, huge runaway inflation including core and food inflation, bank’s already high interest increased 13 times in the last 18 months, poor contribution of government sector banks in nation building, unfair credit/colossus saving rate policy which is not conducive to Saving, freezing of administered prices of petrol in June 2010 has seen greedy and competitative Oil companies raising petrol prices at least half a dozen times- these are myxovirus that hurt India’s economic mobility to the top as an emerging market. We also see a government which is insensitive to Public reaction .The salaried class is epitome of woes of escalating prices. Government’s obsession with Growth rate, and reduction of fiscal deficit, as the main formula of public Policy, and privatization of all administered price regimes so as to reduce government’s subsidy allocation, is a retrograde step contemplated by the Planning Commission to change the edifice of economic policy followed by the architects of Indian economic growth. Momentum of growth depend upon the increased output of manufactured companies who should be given a level playing field with the foreign investors, the high growth in exports (US $ 275 billion) added the Foreign Exchange Reserves, but the industry’s perseverance to grow is cut in the bud by the insensitive support given by the Government with its oscillating Foreign policy which is self defeating. Gross Domestic Product is calculated on the Expenditure method, and thanks to the social sector schemes with huge outlays, excessive liquidity in the system creates inflation. Another factor that adds fuel to the price is born again retail Trading houses which were mega Wholesale super markets, withdraw some of the daily use item causing artificial scarcity, causing too much money chasing two few goods. Prices soar. When domestic banks raised interest rates, Government allowed the Corporates to raise funds from foreign debt markets at low LIBOR rates as the limit of borrowing was increased from $ 20 billion to $ 30 billion per year. But the exchange parity rate did them in, as Rupee depreciated to Rs 50 against a Dollar, making the loan costly. Corporates deserted the external markets. The cost of 1 barrel of oil is $ 110 in the international market. 1 barrel is approximately about 160 liters. The cost of Refining 1 litre of Crude oil costs around Rs 34.09. There is Central Excise levy, Customs duty which is around Rs 5.148 per litre. There is an addition of State levies, and the states have been opting for nil additional duty. One Crore litres of Crude is refined every month. This huge refinement of oil would bring down the per capita cost to negligible percentage. According to the statement of the Finance Minister in the floor of Parliament, more than Rs 8,000 Cr is given as subsidy to IOC, Rs 2,000 Cr to Bharat petroleum, and Rs 1500 cr to Hindustan petroleum. Last year, according to the balance sheet published by Indian Oil Corporation, the net profit after tax was Rs 10,000 Cr! The CEO of IOC went on record two days ago, and made a comment that under recoveries came to Rs 2500 Cr. What has necessitated an increase of Rs 1.80 per litre according to these oil Cos? One, cost of under recoveries need to be embedded in the sale price. Second, the appreciation of the Rupee (Rs 50 = $1) need to be compensated. Just like private exporters, the exchange fluctuation is a market phenomenon, and the Oil companies cannot ask the public to compensate it for the fluctuation. When all along it was the other way around, what concession you have provided, the oil companies must answer. PSUs should cut the cloth according to the cloth and not resort to Arab Spring tactic to raise prices at will. Reliance and other private sector companies also cannot make market phenomenon responsible for enhancing market prices indiscriminately. If you are in the market economy, you should try to adumbrate market perfections. When the profit of PSU is given back to the Government, it goes as Government’s receipts. Why don’t the government reduce Customs duty just as they have done for private players who are getting edible oil from certain countries at “nil” customs duty? If they can favour private cos, why not the PSUs who are essentially government run companies? When the administered price mechanism was dismantled, the Oil Companies should obey the tenants of the market. Since these PSU hold monopoly, they cannot form a cartel and rob the public in the name of factoring in imaginary losses as they may appear from time to time. The problem with the oil Companies is that their expenditure is beyond comprehension. Their operative expenses should be reduced. The quantity of import and the quantum of sale, there should be a match. What is the carry over stock? If an audit is conducted, many Skeltons may fall. Government should always opt for hard options and not easy options. All Companies should have due diligence on expenditure. It would also include the maximum percentile return of refined from the Refineries. What is the cost to the company to work out the sale price? Follow expenditure per customer centric mode and not per employee centric. Even after giving Rs 80,000 pm plus perks to the Government Secretaries, the output of Government babus have not under gone even 1% higher productivity. Higher economic growth would mean je ne sais quoi, unless they reflect in the poor graduating to the next higher class by begetting higher income. It must not be an empty rhetoric and lot of economic jargon explanations. The administered pricing of Petrol must be reinstated, as Companies are going haywire without accountability. They are not mature to handle pricing on their own. Market prices must be determined by competitative pricing and not monopoly pricing. The gap of 30% between Budget Estimates and Revised Estimates should be introspected; government expenditure must be reduced. Let us not be a Jeremiah, predicting discontent!