Sunday, November 6, 2011

The Petrol price oligopoly?

We see a whipsaw market performance, huge runaway inflation including core and food inflation, bank’s already high interest increased 13 times in the last 18 months, poor contribution of government sector banks in nation building, unfair credit/colossus saving rate policy which is not conducive to Saving, freezing of administered prices of petrol in June 2010 has seen greedy and competitative Oil companies raising petrol prices at least half a dozen times- these are myxovirus that hurt India’s economic mobility to the top as an emerging market. We also see a government which is insensitive to Public reaction .The salaried class is epitome of woes of escalating prices. Government’s obsession with Growth rate, and reduction of fiscal deficit, as the main formula of public Policy, and privatization of all administered price regimes so as to reduce government’s subsidy allocation, is a retrograde step contemplated by the Planning Commission to change the edifice of economic policy followed by the architects of Indian economic growth. Momentum of growth depend upon the increased output of manufactured companies who should be given a level playing field with the foreign investors, the high growth in exports (US $ 275 billion) added the Foreign Exchange Reserves, but the industry’s perseverance to grow is cut in the bud by the insensitive support given by the Government with its oscillating Foreign policy which is self defeating. Gross Domestic Product is calculated on the Expenditure method, and thanks to the social sector schemes with huge outlays, excessive liquidity in the system creates inflation. Another factor that adds fuel to the price is born again retail Trading houses which were mega Wholesale super markets, withdraw some of the daily use item causing artificial scarcity, causing too much money chasing two few goods. Prices soar. When domestic banks raised interest rates, Government allowed the Corporates to raise funds from foreign debt markets at low LIBOR rates as the limit of borrowing was increased from $ 20 billion to $ 30 billion per year. But the exchange parity rate did them in, as Rupee depreciated to Rs 50 against a Dollar, making the loan costly. Corporates deserted the external markets. The cost of 1 barrel of oil is $ 110 in the international market. 1 barrel is approximately about 160 liters. The cost of Refining 1 litre of Crude oil costs around Rs 34.09. There is Central Excise levy, Customs duty which is around Rs 5.148 per litre. There is an addition of State levies, and the states have been opting for nil additional duty. One Crore litres of Crude is refined every month. This huge refinement of oil would bring down the per capita cost to negligible percentage. According to the statement of the Finance Minister in the floor of Parliament, more than Rs 8,000 Cr is given as subsidy to IOC, Rs 2,000 Cr to Bharat petroleum, and Rs 1500 cr to Hindustan petroleum. Last year, according to the balance sheet published by Indian Oil Corporation, the net profit after tax was Rs 10,000 Cr! The CEO of IOC went on record two days ago, and made a comment that under recoveries came to Rs 2500 Cr. What has necessitated an increase of Rs 1.80 per litre according to these oil Cos? One, cost of under recoveries need to be embedded in the sale price. Second, the appreciation of the Rupee (Rs 50 = $1) need to be compensated. Just like private exporters, the exchange fluctuation is a market phenomenon, and the Oil companies cannot ask the public to compensate it for the fluctuation. When all along it was the other way around, what concession you have provided, the oil companies must answer. PSUs should cut the cloth according to the cloth and not resort to Arab Spring tactic to raise prices at will. Reliance and other private sector companies also cannot make market phenomenon responsible for enhancing market prices indiscriminately. If you are in the market economy, you should try to adumbrate market perfections. When the profit of PSU is given back to the Government, it goes as Government’s receipts. Why don’t the government reduce Customs duty just as they have done for private players who are getting edible oil from certain countries at “nil” customs duty? If they can favour private cos, why not the PSUs who are essentially government run companies? When the administered price mechanism was dismantled, the Oil Companies should obey the tenants of the market. Since these PSU hold monopoly, they cannot form a cartel and rob the public in the name of factoring in imaginary losses as they may appear from time to time. The problem with the oil Companies is that their expenditure is beyond comprehension. Their operative expenses should be reduced. The quantity of import and the quantum of sale, there should be a match. What is the carry over stock? If an audit is conducted, many Skeltons may fall. Government should always opt for hard options and not easy options. All Companies should have due diligence on expenditure. It would also include the maximum percentile return of refined from the Refineries. What is the cost to the company to work out the sale price? Follow expenditure per customer centric mode and not per employee centric. Even after giving Rs 80,000 pm plus perks to the Government Secretaries, the output of Government babus have not under gone even 1% higher productivity. Higher economic growth would mean je ne sais quoi, unless they reflect in the poor graduating to the next higher class by begetting higher income. It must not be an empty rhetoric and lot of economic jargon explanations. The administered pricing of Petrol must be reinstated, as Companies are going haywire without accountability. They are not mature to handle pricing on their own. Market prices must be determined by competitative pricing and not monopoly pricing. The gap of 30% between Budget Estimates and Revised Estimates should be introspected; government expenditure must be reduced. Let us not be a Jeremiah, predicting discontent!

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