India is a beaming or booming economy, while is trying to become one of the most emerging markets of the third millennium. Do we need to get ecstatic about this development, as we graduate from the colonial territory to a booming economy?
Our pragmatic Prime Minister (late Shri Jawaharlal Nehru) believed in Planning as we embraced the USSR model for our development. Never mind, United Soviet Socialistic Republic does not exist but Russia is the super hyperbole of the algebra, geometry, trigonometry of economic thinking or practicable economic theorems of the erstwhile Soviet Union. The 5 Year Plans, a planning model to take India to the envoirons of the developed nations of the world and world markets where we want to make a distinct mark.
Let us not worry about where the Plans take us. Not of money is spent on these. It has physical and financial targets. It wants India to be a Country of milk and honey. India is a country of over 1.2 billion people, forget the dinky, and the economic scientists who voice we two which we will never accept, because our Preamble and Directive principle of state Policy does not say so. No problem, if the rich are become richer. We need more wealth. Indian millionaires will have their wealth grow by a whopping 405% over the next decade. India is expected to overtake United States in terms of highest per capita wealth among millionaires with US $ 4.25 million. India’s total millionaire households are expected to be around 0.69 million. When the Banks in India raised the interest rates, at least 12 times in the last 18 months to counter headline inflation which created inflation ballooning, and the ordinary will have to bear the high, higher and highest interest rates, our Corporates can borrow up to $ 30 billion from the External Market, and in the first six months of the current fiscal alone, the drawal was almost $20 billion and this money in valuable Foreign exchange was used to pay Rupee expenditure of these Corporate Companies, call them blue chip, navaratna, or what ever you please. We have already encashed $ 4.12 billion from the US Treasury bonds between April, May and June, 2011 and at the end of Q1, Q2 we have decided to borrow further Rs 52,500 Crs to match our income which got depleted by the small savings, expected to garner Rs 25,000 Cr, saw a withdrawal of Rs 35,000 Cr; we planned a disinvestment of Rs 40,000 Cr. But neither time nor economy is ripe enough for it, so we put the proposal on hold. The weak dollar is firming up against the Rupee, while Rupee rate has been devaluing, comfort Exporters, but weak for the Country, as BoP is rather high.
But while every sector is making growth oriented programmes, we had another sensation breaking news. It is not Sachin tendulkar’s 100 ton, but the master stroke of our thinking economists who can tinker with economics adroitly. The revelation will undoubtedly surprise the conventional economists and social scientists. India was shining when NDA stepped down and handed over power to UPAI in a golden platter. India is still shinning. The poor in India has come down and expectedly if you are spending Rs 32/- per day per individual, you are Poor. However, if you have the capability to spend Rs 33/- per day per individual, you are Above the Poverty Line. Remember, food inflation is hovering around nearly 10%, headline inflation is also inching to the mark, all vegetables, are costly like Onions, carrot, potatoes, cabbage, radish, tomatoes etc while the prices of egg, fish, meat, etc have gone up astronomically. Do not think, it is diatribe? Two chapattis (rotis) costs Rs 12/- and sabhji costs Rs 4/- making it Rs 16/-, one cup of tea costs Rs 5/-; Rice/Roti with little sabhji, Rs 15/- butter milk Rs 5/-, evening tea Rs 5/- night one roti + 1 veg dish Rs 10/- and one banana Rs 3/- ; all come to Rs 59/-. Think it is made in the house. You require choli, wood, kerosene, rice, dhal, vegetables, milk, coffe/tea powder, todar dhal, edible oil, soap for cleaning, dress, etc. We are not talking about aerated beverage, nor are we talking about soup, pickle, lazzi, diary products, LPG, Hamburg, Bread sandwich, puri masala, dosa-idli sambhar which costs near Jantar mandar (New Delhi) instant canteens Rs 25/- per plate, or thali which is a minimum Rs 40/- per plate. If cost of living had not gone up, why were Central DA’s increased based on Cost of Living Index?
While the Planning apparatus has worked out Rs 32/- as BPL, and Rs 33/- APL, it condensed the household as Four, which would entail an expenditure for 4, in a urban area, at Rs 32x4=Rs 128/= and expenses in a month of 30 days will be 128x30x12= Rs 46,080/- per annum, and for APL Rs 47,520/-. If limiting the spending of BPL @ Rs 32/- per person, and four to form a family, the calculation looks unrealistic. It is a most unscientific an explanation ever, when the country’s Rupee has lost its purchasing power by 80-85%.
National Sample Survey Organization (Base: Mixed Recall period consumption) arrived at the number of BPL between 6.5 Cr and 8.07 Cr, and on socio economic parameters, the figures went up from 62.5 million to 107 million. Four out of ten in the rural areas and 3 out of ten in the urban area fell under the BPL. (Suresh Tendulkar) The figures provided by NCAER/Plg Commission/State Statistics did not match. Sexana Panel suggested a new methodology for arriving at the no of BPL.
With Plg Commission determination of rate of spending as criteria for BPL, what is the cost of one square meal, which Food Security Programme is going to offer. Cost to the Government is not the standard but the cost of one square meal/a day is what should be worked out. Will this dole obliterate poverty?
The betterment of economy does not mean a higher growth of GDP alone while the majority of the Poor among the weak economic downtrodden does not get a square meal a day, and have to depend upon contaminated water to drink. The squalor of the poor needs a dressing up. Not the figures.
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